We know that to some extent buzz share in Wonkosphere is a zero sum game–if bloggers are talking about candidate X they’re less likely to also be talking about candidate Y.  If we go back to June and examine buzz share amongst conservative bloggers, Mike Huckabee appears to be at the center of this complex dynamic of one candidate’s buzz eating into another’s. 

When buzz share on Huckabee goes up, buzz on John McCain and Fred Thompson goes way down; conversely if McCain or Thompson go up, Huckabee goes down drastically.  Mitt Romney has the same relationship: if Romney buzz share goes up, McCain’s and Thompson’s buzz shares go way down, and if McCain or Thompson go up in buzz, it kills buzz on Romney.  Huckabee also has a unique positive correlation with both Ron Paul and Mitt Romney; if Huckabee goes up or down in buzz, so do Paul and Romney.  Finally, Paul and Giuliani appear to trade buzz.

What does this mean in terms of the horse race? 

1. Rudy Giuliani’s buzz share is mostly his making, for good or bad.  Giuliani, like Hillary Clinton, is talked about almost regardless of what he does.

2. Conservative bloggers, for now, appear to be trading off McCain and Thompson with Huckabee and Romney.   

3. Supporters of McCain and Thompson don’t overlap much except they don’t like Romney or Huckabee.  Supporters of Romney and Huckabee tend to be thinking more in the same direction, and are united in their dislike of McCain and Thompson.

Looking at how liberal bloggers discuss the Republican candidates, we have a different dynamic.  Specifically, when liberal bloggers are ranting on Giuliani, they’re are not ranting on McCain, and visa versa.  When they are ranting on Romney, they are not ranting on Fred Thompson, and visa versa.  I think this has to do with timing.  Basically, when McCain was having “trouble” in August, liberal bloggers piled on and ignored Giuliani.  Similarly, when Thompson entered the race, liberal bloggers stopped paying attention to Romney and instead paid attention to Thompson.